Publishers changing games from goods to services VS allowed 2nd hand goods markets
I am going to imagine that the large games publishers are going to want to feel the minimum disruption possible. The less change, the better, especially if you are a manager in a big company.
In your video you give the argument that changing the appearance of games from being goods to services will impact image and sales. You specifically mention the idea of games having to state that they will only last X years and be a subscription service. I think this is being optimistic of how honest you expect the game companies to be.
I'm imagining they would instead do something like this:
- Positive spin on 'subscription' to make it look normal.
- Lever the existing microtransactions as a partial explanation for it being subscription. Perhaps make a couple of transactions that "complete the game content" that are monthly, and say that if you don't pay you are not seeing the "full game".
This would be so much easier for them, they basically have to change nothing other than boxes, their license texts and what they say publicly. No company structure change, no budget changes, no planning changes. This is the least resistance path.
Debating your Impacts of demanding 2nd hand games be tradable (for the big game publishers)
I don't think "more money to the developer" is directly linked to "more games" and "lower prices". The exact relationships are more complex.
I would like to think of "a sale" and "money going to the publisher" as two separate but very connected concepts.
"Money going to the publisher" does not directly lower prices. Prices are set based on research and marketing of what price is going to maximise the overall volume of money in. How much the game cost to make or how much it profits are irrelevant variables when deciding the sale price, you don't price based on demand or costs, you don't have to (this isn't a "limited" physical good).
"Money going to the publisher" may or may not make more games get released. I'm a bit sceptical, I would assume that game release quantities and schedules are just as gamed as game prices. For smaller developers: definitely yes, most of this money goes toward game creation. But for the bigger boys: big chunks of it (possibly most of it?) goes towards marketing, corporate and planning.
"A sale", if we now consider everything other than the financial gain part of it, is more of a numerical concept. This game sold X copies over Y time in Z pattern. It's a bit like a hit counter -- a potential indicator of success, but not an indicator of future success (ie making more games & lowering their prices).
Take for example Valve: used to make games, got rich from it, decided to stop making games. If you throw money at a publisher or game developer is does not get used for what you want it to get used for, instead they choose how to use it, and they will always run their sales at what they think is the optimal pricing strategy (not the lowest pricing strategy to reward consumers).
How would a 2nd hand market be implemented?
I think it's worth investigating all of the options here.
Fundamentally it's hard to do 2nd hand stuff for digital goods:
- Allow anyone with a copy to install & play (GoG-style)
- Force there to be only one owner/player at a time via DRM
- Iron-hand the 2nd hand market by restricting it to your platform.
Option (1) is the most liked by consumers, but there's no way to confirm transmission of ownership. I like this model, and I think there are arguments out there that this might lead to more sales (because people like this freedom), but I'm not sure.
Option (2) requires phone-home DRM to make
certain that only one person can use the game at a time. I have some games I picked up off the street at a council cleanup a few years back, including a copy of GTA4. "Awesome", I thought, "these are mine now". Nope, many of these games refuse to activate : (
Option (3) is where the courts give the companies enough lee-way to run a closed-house 2nd hand market. This would be rife for exploitation unless there is a lot of governance. There's not much point of the 2nd hand market if it's controlled by the same people as the 1st hand market, especially since there is no easy way of confirming that products are not being artificially "destroyed" to game the 2nd hand market prices.
This final implementation detail is what matters. This may even end up being a whole second stage of proceedings. If companies are allowed to run their own 2nd hand markets then they could game them just as they game the 1st hand market. They don't even have to be transparent about it: "destroying" and "creating" a copy of a game is free to them.
Deabating the benefit on shady key sellers
I don't think a 2nd hand market is going to help shady sellers like G2A. They will still operate in the same way and be just as shady:
- 2nd hand games cost more than free/dodgy/scammed keys
- Claiming a key is a valid 2nd hand game takes zero effort
Their services would still have the same prices and users would still (mostly) see them as just as dodgy as they are now. Perhaps if someone goes to extra effort of creating a decent-looking 2nd hand game trade platform this might change, but they would have to be very wary of distancing themselves from traditional shady key sites.