Possible EU enlargement?????

[ProHypster]

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Ukraine's EU ambassador has hinted that Kiev is ready to sign a far-reaching pact with the union even if it makes no more concessions on the economy or pro-enlargement wording.

 

If all goes to plan, EU leaders and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych will in early December in Brussels scribble their initials on an Association Agreement putting Ukraine on a path to one day join the union and fully opening a market of 46 million people to EU companies.

 

Yanukovych (l) in Brussels - initially seen as a Russian stooge, the Ukrainian leader has delivered on pro-EU reforms (Photo: ec.europa.eu)

 

If the opportunity slips by, further EU-Ukraine integration will be put on hold as Ukraine and Russia head into 2012 elections, causing doubt among post-Soviet countries if the union is serious about its eastern foreign policy objectives.

 

Ukraine's EU ambassador, Kostyantyn Yeliseyev, told EUobserver in an interview that just two important issues stand in the way of finalisation.

 

On the economic side, Ukraine would like the EU to open its market for road haulage services to Ukrainian trucking firms. On the political side, it wants the EU to copy-paste Article 49 of the Lisbon Treaty into the preamble of the association text, saying: "Any European state which respects [EU] values ... may apply to become a member of the union."

 

Noting that negotiators will meet in the EU capital on 26 September for the next round of talks, Yeliseyev said the two sides are fingertips away from agreement. "Any of the next full rounds of talks could be the last one," he said.

 

The normally pugnacious diplomat hinted that even if the union fails to give ground on the outstanding issues, Kiev would be happy to put pen to paper.

 

Asked by this website if the Association Agreement would be a huge achievement even without the final concessions, Yeliseyev answered: "It would ... This [pro-enlargement clause] is our aspiration, our ambition. But if you read out the final text of the Association Agreement [as it stands], this already sounds like an agreement for a future candidate country."

 

"If it happens, it will signal a great geopolitical shift in Europe. People will be able to stop discussing whether Ukraine's future lies to the east or to the West. All this will be over. We'll go West."

 

The optimistic view is shared by the Polish EU presidency.

 

Speaking to journalists in Warsaw last weekend, Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski noted that the existing language of the EU-Ukraine pact is pregnant with promise. "Ukraine already has more than Poland had at the same moment in our association with Europe. When we were conducting our policy, our national obsession to get into the EU, all we had was an acknowledgement of our one-sided decision [to seek membership]," he said.

 

With the EU concerned that Moscow might sabotage the process or that Kiev might spoil it by jailing opposition leaders, Yeliseyev is more wary of last-minute tricks from anti-enlargement EU countries, such as France, Germany and the Netherlands.

 

The ambassador said Russia recently imposed new tarrifs on Ukrainian products to show what might happen if it turns its back on the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union.

 

But he noted that Ukrainian business tycoons and politicians from the Russian-speaking east of the country are as much on board the EU train as its traditionally pro-EU western regions: "If any politician today in Ukraine declared himself to be against European integration, he would be politically dead."

 

He was less sure about the EU side.

 

"The nearer we get to the end, the more little obstacles seem to be emerging," Yeliseyev said. "There are several member states which don't see Ukraine as a potential EU country, which don't want to send any positive messages on enlargement."

 

Hmm... I don't really know what to say in this case :/....

Any comments appreciated, I won't mind any biased views on this.

[Doom Shepherd]

Heh - if you really wanna piss Russia off, try joining NATO.

 

Anyway, given Europe's current economic difficulties (Ireland, Greece, Portugal, etc.), it may be wiser to move slowly for now, and see how that whole mess sorts out before Ukraine joins.

[ProHypster]

Heh - if you really wanna piss Russia off, try joining NATO.

 

Anyway, given Europe's current economic difficulties (Ireland, Greece, Portugal, etc.), it may be wiser to move slowly for now, and see how that whole mess sorts out before Ukraine joins.

That is actually the primary concern, traditionally the russians are our closest friends (and enemies sometimes but still closest out of the other neighbouring countries).

Our culture is at least 95% similar with theirs. The true reaosn we are independent right now is because of the difference in our political ambitions and theirs.

 

Hopefully we can still be friends with them :/....

[BTGBullseye]

Mark my words, the EU is eventually going to try and take over the world.

[ProHypster]

Mark my words, the EU is eventually going to try and take over the world.

True, but not in this generation. So why not chill for the time being:)

[BTGBullseye]

Mark my words, the EU is eventually going to try and take over the world.

True, but not in this generation. So why not chill for the time being:)

My guess is less than 30 years before they mobilize...

[J.C.]

I really don't think they'll have enough young people for that.

 

If you ask me, in 30 years the EU will be another failed hegemonic experiment in the pages of history.

[ProHypster]

I really don't think they'll have enough young people for that.

 

If you ask me, in 30 years the EU will be another failed hegemonic experiment in the pages of history.

Well, it's true, the birth ratio of european countries is extremely low...

 

But,

In all history we have seen when countries like South Africa go conquered by the dutch, the ratio was 5 % Europeans and 95 % Africans, and still they made them slaves....

 

(This is just facts, I don't support or neglect them, so don't get offended... )

[Bjossi]

Iceland is also possibly going to join the EU. I hope the national vote will turn it down.

[J.C.]

Well, it's true, the birth ratio of european countries is extremely low...

But, In all history we have seen when countries like South Africa go conquered by the dutch, the ratio was 5 % Europeans and 95 % Africans, and still they made them slaves....

(This is just facts, I don't support or neglect them, so don't get offended... )

 

Don't worry, I never get offended in an rational discussion.

 

I don't think the comparison with colonialism situations applies, simply because we are not talking about a significantly technologically advanced and militarily strong culture taking over another (which is the case with European colonization in America and Africa), but of a coalition of countries in a very homogeneous world. To accomplish that expansion in our time, you need a sizable army (if you don't believe me, just look at the US effort in Iraq and Afganistan: those are "saturation" wars, both in therms of money, equipment and troops). Since technology is widely available these days, it's not really a mayor differentiation point unless you have the manpower to back it up.

 

You cannot occupy a country relying on drone planes alone. An the only threat big enough, would be nuclear weapons, which are quite unpractical because everyone has them right now (and if they don't, it's just because they have not tried hard enough. The technology is out there).

 

I personally think Europe is headed for some very rough times. It is not viable to sustain the lifestyle Europeans are used to, with such massive government spending and rapidly diminishing (and very expensive) workforce.

 

Iceland is also possibly going to join the EU. I hope the national vote will turn it down.

You are probably better off alone.

[ProHypster]

Actually, you've got it all wrong, nowadays wars are fought with treaties, propaganda and espionage/sabotage/coup d'etat even through smuggling drugs to a population and mafia means.

 

The only time manpower is important is when the enemy uses guerilla warfare and you can't bomb them because there are civilians. If there was no civilians, do you know how easy it would be to fight these small countries? Just bomb them a bit and they will surrender. Even with that fact in mind I don't know how the hell the americans have so much trouble conquering these parts, the Soviets lost people to the Afghanis but as it is calculated the Afghanis lost 3 million people during the war while the soviets only 20 thousand.

 

If there ever will be a serious war such as World War 2, it will be fought with nukes, but let's hope that is far away from now.

 

So there is multiple possibilities of taking territory or countries. Canada has been conquered pretty much with unfair treaties traking land for some useless stuff untill there was no land to trade for example.

 

Anyway, I don't see any way how the EU would attack anyone in the near future. They aren't even a country, so chill out .

 

@Bjossi The way I see it, you can always leave it if you don't like the way things are going. (ex. Greenland) For me I'm worried about Putin's reaction and about losing freedom of governance with tricks from Germany or France.

[J.C.]

Actually, you've got it all wrong, nowadays wars are fought with treaties, propaganda and espionage/sabotage/coup d'etat even through smuggling drugs to a population and mafia means.

I think you're talking about globalization, not war .

 

The only time manpower is important is when the enemy uses guerilla warfare and you can't bomb them because there are civilians.

When you occupy a country (and remember this whole debate started with this statement "Mark my words, the EU is eventually going to try and take over the world.", I'm talking about that), you'll inevitably face insurrection and guerrilla warfare. Keeping your hold will be costly: morally, economically and in terms of manpower. The EU doesn't really have a lot of any of those things, not enough to try and take over the world anyway. So I don't think military expansion on their part is likely.

[BTGBullseye]

When you occupy a country (and remember this whole debate started with this statement "Mark my words, the EU is eventually going to try and take over the world.", I'm talking about that), you'll inevitably face insurrection and guerrilla warfare. Keeping your hold will be costly: morally, economically and in terms of manpower. The EU doesn't really have a lot of any of those things, not enough to try and take over the world anyway. So I don't think military expansion on their part is likely.

I never said anything about war or military... I just said they'll try and take over the world. That can be done through propaganda and treaties...

[Alyxx Thorne]

Norway still prides itself on being EU-independent. I don't think we'll switch to Euros in any foreseeable future.

[J.C.]

I never said anything about war or military... I just said they'll try and take over the world. That can be done through propaganda and treaties...

Don't really see how. I think there's very little hope for Europe. I believe it's only a matter of time before their massive bureaucratic spending, coupled with diminishing working force, general unrest and animosity towards immigrants and insanely high living standards cause all hell to break loose.

[BTGBullseye]

If you cultivate the desire in other countries to do as your country does, you can very easily take control of that country. Speaking from what I see going on here in the US, the EU is well on it's way toward taking over.

[ProHypster]

An example of these new wars I can think of is the 1980-1990 Economic and Military push on the soviets by Us made specifically to bankrupt them.

The result was that territories got lost and overall the economies of the post war countries collapsed for 8 years until about 1998...

 

You can say that would've happened anyway because it was an authoritarian regime, I can say yes, but not with such big losses.

[J.C.]

You're still ignoring the fact that Europe simply doesn't have enough young people to sustain their current lifestyle. It's just a matter of time before it all collapses. Further expansion, or taking over the world in any fashion is not going to work when one third of your population is over 65 years old (look at these projections, keep in mind also they are from Eurostat) and your country's economy is rapidly going to hell.

 

I maintain my position that the EU as a whole will not be long lived.

[BTGBullseye]

Population age and sustainability doesn't matter with propaganda wars...

[J.C.]

This argument is getting circular

 

How can you say sustainability doesn't matter with propaganda war... If there's no EU to begin with (and my thesis has always been that is going to collapse), who would make the propaganda?