Sources of my 2015 prediction for oil problems

[Doom Shepherd]

P.S. Ross the US dose have oil reserves that will cover the US for years to come. may not be 2015 but more like 2020

http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/nex ... 2.13s.html

 

I looked at the story and did a quick search on google. Your article is dated Feb 13' date=' 2008 and mentions soon the USGS will release a report regarding the amount of oil. Well I think this is that report:

 

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911

 

They're saying it's closer to 3.5 - 4.3 billion and it's questionable how much of that is really recoverable. Even at 4.3 billion barrels, that's a little under 7 months' worth of oil based on the USA's current rate of consumption. So that's good news, but not a fundamental game-changer.[/quote']

 

That's just the Bakken, right?

[ProHypster]

For those who think oil is dissapearing, remember the Arctic and the Antarctic.

 

The only thing I'm afraid of really is that the oil preferring monopolies will fight for the last drop of oil and therefore ruin the arctic and antarctic most likely and cause othe problems, instead of trying to switch to an alternative resource. Which will most likely happen unless countries like USA start taking over the oil companies and/or force them to change like they did with Ford during World War 2.

[BTGBullseye]

The military is already looking into doing it to power soldiers in the field where it's hard to get other fuels. I figure we could probably kick-start the same sort of program to provide energy for the public with... oh, about what it cost to build the fleet of stealth bombers, in today's dollars. At least, that was the estimate I read a few years ago.

Too bad they're still stuck messing with solar power for soldiers when they should be trying to make bio-energy extraction techniques (using the human body as a generator) usable, or just adding a series of kinetic watch style generators (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_quartz) at the soldiers elbows/knees/other joints.

[Doom Shepherd]

Which will most likely happen unless countries like USA start taking over the oil companies and/or force them to change like they did with Ford during World War 2.

I don't see how being taken over by Brazil improved Petrobras any. Sure, Brazil is now running a lot of things on ethanol instead of oil and gas, but we've already seen that ethanol really isn't as good a solution as had been claimed.

 

Oh, and now Petrobras is going to do even more deepwater drilling... in the Gulf of Mexico. Far deeper (and hence, more dangerous) than that well that blew last year.

 

And the US is loaning them the money ($2 billion) to buy the equipment to drill with.

[Doom Shepherd]

The military is already looking into doing it to power soldiers in the field where it's hard to get other fuels. I figure we could probably kick-start the same sort of program to provide energy for the public with... oh, about what it cost to build the fleet of stealth bombers, in today's dollars. At least, that was the estimate I read a few years ago.

Too bad they're still stuck messing with solar power for soldiers when they should be trying to make bio-energy extraction techniques (using the human body as a generator) usable, or just adding a series of kinetic watch style generators (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_quartz) at the soldiers elbows/knees/other joints.

 

Ha-ha! You can wind a watch with human-generated kinetic energy. You'll never be able to power a tank with it.

 

The US military already has solar tents, though, with collectors that generate 2 kilowatts of power per tent. Not huge, but enough to recharge stuff like night-vision equipment, cell phones, and other tools. means less batteries/generators carried in the field.

[BTGBullseye]

Ha-ha! You can wind a watch with human-generated kinetic energy. You'll never be able to power a tank with it.

You have no idea how much power that generator produces... Put a dozen of them on a single joint and you can power a cellphone. (you wouldn't even be able to feel the resistance from the generators either due to the extremely low mass of the whole system)

 

The US military already has solar tents, though, with collectors that generate 2 kilowatts of power per tent. Not huge, but enough to recharge stuff like night-vision equipment, cell phones, and other tools. means less batteries/generators carried in the field.

2KW is like running 20x 100-watt light bulbs, that's more than most households use... (and frequently more than the household fusebox can handle) I think you're missing a decimal point in front of that 2 there.

[ProHypster]

Which will most likely happen unless countries like USA start taking over the oil companies and/or force them to change like they did with Ford during World War 2.

I don't see how being taken over by Brazil improved Petrobras any. Sure, Brazil is now running a lot of things on ethanol instead of oil and gas, but we've already seen that ethanol really isn't as good a solution as had been claimed.

 

Oh, and now Petrobras is going to do even more deepwater drilling... in the Gulf of Mexico. Far deeper (and hence, more dangerous) than that well that blew last year.

 

And the US is loaning them the money ($2 billion) to buy the equipment to drill with.

 

It's not taken over by Brazil... 36% remains private as I understand.

 

What would you recommend then?

[Doom Shepherd]

Put a dozen of them on a single joint and you can power a cellphone. (you wouldn't even be able to feel the resistance from the generators either due to the extremely low mass of the whole system)

A dozen generators on a single human joint? Would kind of impede the functioning of the joint. I don't buy this. Show me even a half-dozen of these generators working simultaneously on someone's knee, and I'll take it back.

 

2KW is like running 20x 100-watt light bulbs, that's more than most households use... (and frequently more than the household fusebox can handle) I think you're missing a decimal point in front of that 2 there.

 

Nope.

http://www.backup-power.ca/portable_solar_tents.html

 

This is enough energy to power up to 66 laptop computers or 260 cell or satellite phones. Yeah, the sun needs to be shining. But you know, it does that a lot, especially in the desert.

 

Actually, the company that makes them is now talking about producing a 3kW version soon. And it's already paper thin, I imagine they'll be weaving it into clothing before long. Then all you'll have to do to charge your cellphone is put it in your pocket.

 

Then we can put it on electric cars, as a convertible top...

[BTGBullseye]

http://www.backup-power.ca/portable_solar_tents.html

I just checked it, 65 amps at 15.4 or 30.8 volts. I was thinking of the small personal tents, not the giant basecamp tents.

 

A dozen generators on a single human joint? Would kind of impede the functioning of the joint. I don't buy this. Show me even a half-dozen of these generators working simultaneously on someone's knee, and I'll take it back.

It hasn't been done because it's expensive to do.

 

The total size of a 12 generator array (if designed/arranged properly) is less than 1/4 inch by 1/8 inch. How much resistance do you think that could produce? (capacitors would take up a static 1/4" x 1/4" location connected solely by wires)

[Reaper Jack]

All of these alternative energy sources can best be described as "cute". We need nuclear power now. Properly done, of course.

[danielsangeo]

 

It's "cute", but something like this will never catch on.

[BTGBullseye]

 

It's "cute", but something like this will never catch on.

And that didn't... This did:

 

[ProHypster]

I bet five bucks that even when natural oil will dissapear some companies will maintain making cars with bio-fuel until they eventually go bankrupt and die in the pollution they created.

[Razor235]

We can only dream about 100% harvest but with advanced enough technology we could get a LOT of energy from the sun. I think the key to that is to move the harvesting out into space and build massive solar energy plants that collect and send energy down to earth through controlled means that minimize waste.

I remember seeing that in SimCity 2000. I didn't realize it was anywhere near doable.

 

You also remember the disaster associated with it, right? CITYWIDE DESTRUCTION! That was a fun game.

[BTGBullseye]

Revived for evidence that predictions aren't all they're cracked up to be... We still are using oil like crazy with no apparent end in sight.

[Vapymid]

 

Regards

[GrooveWindow]

Reviving because this is something that I think about a lot.

While we need to find a substitute for oil, I don't know how realistic that is. Oil is used for the production of almost everything, not just fuel. Plastic, chemicals, even clothing all use oil in the production process. Not only would the substitute have to be a good fuel, but it would have to be as versatile as oil, if not more.

But, since I'm a psychologist and not a chemical engineer, I'm not really sure about what would work. I'd be interested to know if anyone has any information regarding that specific obstacle (something that doesn't just deal with fuel consumption), because I want to learn as much about it as I can.

[Riley Hawk]

I'm glad that Mr. Scott was wrong.

[ThePest179]

Revived for evidence that predictions aren't all they're cracked up to be... We still are using oil like crazy with no apparent end in sight.

 

Okay, I'm no expert but...

 

1. Presumably more oil reserves/better extraction methods have been discovered in the past four years.

2. Alternative energy sources have been on the rise in the past four years, decreasing the need for oil.

3. Peak oil was greatly exaggerated, similar to the Y2K bug.

 

Those are my explanations anyway.

[BTGBullseye]

2. Alternative energy sources have been on the rise in the past four years, decreasing the need for oil.

This contradicts your assumption. (http://www.eia.gov/)