Sources of my 2015 prediction for oil problems

[Koach]

im pretty sure that, if by 2015 we run out of oil, things are gonna be like this:

 

2015: USA sends a fuck ton of soldiers, tanks, equipment and supplies to the middle east

2016: the USA takes over 1/2 of the middle east and most of it's oil.

2017: the oil price goes up to a shit ton of money per gallon

2018: epic war between many eastern countries and USA to get oil (also in south america)

2019: some "genius" in a car making brand decides to start making cars that work using air/hydrogen/electricity/nytrogen/other flamable thing that is unrelated to petrol

2020: the people realize that there ARE alternatives to petrol, but they're too stupid to use them

2021: the UN prohibits vehicles that work with gas

2022: the epic war ends with US withdrawal, SOME people start buying things that replace petrol

2023: some real einstein figures out how to use methane to make vehicles work (but in a way better way than before)

2024: shit stays =

2025: cars are manufactured with not too powerful methane engines

2026: problem 50% solved

im tired of writing now lol

[Doom Shepherd]

Not long ago, I read an article in Popular Science (or Popular Mechanics, I forget which) that posited that we could generate all our current and predicted energy usage by 2040, using just solar power, if we actually cared to do so.

 

The US military is aware of the problems of getting fuel to soldiers in the field, and is working on space-based solar power stations that could "beam" power to troops anywhere at any time, regardless of lighting or weather conditions. They have also already developed a kind of solar panel that is lightweight and fabric-based, and have put it on tents. Even this "primitive" collector can currently generate about 1 Kw per tent.

 

Meanwhile, we're designing ever-better, more efficient, and safer Generation IV nuclear power plants... but just can't build any.

[Descriptor]

Not long ago, I read an article in Popular Science (or Popular Mechanics, I forget which) that posited that we could generate all our current and predicted energy usage by 2040, using just solar power, if we actually cared to do so.

 

The US military is aware of the problems of getting fuel to soldiers in the field, and is working on space-based solar power stations that could "beam" power to troops anywhere at any time, regardless of lighting or weather conditions. They have also already developed a kind of solar panel that is lightweight and fabric-based, and have put it on tents. Even this "primitive" collector can currently generate about 1 Kw per tent.

 

Meanwhile, we're designing ever-better, more efficient, and safer Generation IV nuclear power plants... but just can't build any.

 

Lol environmentalists being too overbearing.

The same thing happens with wind power.

Everyone clamors for it, but if you propose putting in turbines, people complain because it "spoils the view".

Well wah wah, better than a coal plant on the horizon! (Although coal will be important for transitioning into renewable sources).

 

Same thing with solar power.

Can't build a solar power plant because it will ruin the desert ecosystem or something.

Frick.

 

I mean, yeah, I can understand worrying about some of this stuff, but some people are just bloody unreasonable!

[nomogoodnames]

If you want to see a really good solution, see this game's storyline. It seems rather realistic and has another crazy plan that we can stupidly attempt to follow, or not.

[Waldo_II]

Not long ago, I read an article in Popular Science (or Popular Mechanics, I forget which) that posited that we could generate all our current and predicted energy usage by 2040, using just solar power, if we actually cared to do so.

 

You do know that Popular Science is a shitty, sensationalist disgrace to the name of printed publication, right? I stopped taking their stuff seriously a year ago.

[Bjossi]

The sun is essentially a vast fusion reactor, every second it outputs energy that when harvested could supply the entire planet with energy for a long time. We can only dream about 100% harvest but with advanced enough technology we could get a LOT of energy from the sun. I think the key to that is to move the harvesting out into space and build massive solar energy plants that collect and send energy down to earth through controlled means that minimize waste.

 

That happens before 2040? More like 2400.

[Alyxx Thorne]

The sun is essentially a vast fusion reactor, every second it outputs energy that when harvested could supply the entire planet with energy for a long time. We can only dream about 100% harvest but with advanced enough technology we could get a LOT of energy from the sun. I think the key to that is to move the harvesting out into space and build massive solar energy plants that collect and send energy down to earth through controlled means that minimize waste.

 

That happens before 2040? More like 2400.

I'd love to see that happen. But how we would transport the energy is another thing. I can't imagine huge thick wires going from those plants through space and down onto Earth.

[BTGBullseye]

The sun is essentially a vast fusion reactor, every second it outputs energy that when harvested could supply the entire planet with energy for a long time. We can only dream about 100% harvest but with advanced enough technology we could get a LOT of energy from the sun. I think the key to that is to move the harvesting out into space and build massive solar energy plants that collect and send energy down to earth through controlled means that minimize waste.

 

That happens before 2040? More like 2400.

I'd love to see that happen. But how we would transport the energy is another thing. I can't imagine huge thick wires going from those plants through space and down onto Earth.

Microwave beams... The tech exists today to transport large amounts of energy that way, but you have to make sure nothing flys through the beam or it gets vaporized... lol

[Alyxx Thorne]

The sun is essentially a vast fusion reactor, every second it outputs energy that when harvested could supply the entire planet with energy for a long time. We can only dream about 100% harvest but with advanced enough technology we could get a LOT of energy from the sun. I think the key to that is to move the harvesting out into space and build massive solar energy plants that collect and send energy down to earth through controlled means that minimize waste.

 

That happens before 2040? More like 2400.

I'd love to see that happen. But how we would transport the energy is another thing. I can't imagine huge thick wires going from those plants through space and down onto Earth.

Microwave beams... The tech exists today to transport large amounts of energy that way, but you have to make sure nothing flys through the beam or it gets vaporized... lol

Well that would surely suck...

 

"Honey, I'm turning on the toas---ZAP!"

[Doom Shepherd]

Well that would surely suck...

 

"Honey, I'm turning on the toas---ZAP!"

 

I believe they've already shown that they can create an energy-carrying "beam" of microwaves at a strength that won't harm humans. For safety and signal loss's sake, though, I'd expect them to build the recievers in fairly barren areas, like the Mojave.

 

On the other hand, being dual-use technology, it could be a great weapon. Imagine being able to cook Al-quaeda from orbit as they sit in their caves. Toasty Terrorist.

[Alyxx Thorne]

Well that would surely suck...

 

"Honey, I'm turning on the toas---ZAP!"

 

I believe they've already shown that they can create an energy-carrying "beam" of microwaves at a strength that won't harm humans. For safety and signal loss's sake, though, I'd expect them to build the recievers in fairly barren areas, like the Mojave.

 

On the other hand, being dual-use technology, it could be a great weapon. Imagine being able to cook Al-quaeda from orbit as they sit in their caves. Toasty Terrorist.

Haha, they'd be OWNED.

[The Scoutman]

Well that would surely suck...

 

"Honey, I'm turning on the toas---ZAP!"

 

I believe they've already shown that they can create an energy-carrying "beam" of microwaves at a strength that won't harm humans. For safety and signal loss's sake, though, I'd expect them to build the recievers in fairly barren areas, like the Mojave.

 

On the other hand, being dual-use technology, it could be a great weapon. Imagine being able to cook Al-quaeda from orbit as they sit in their caves. Toasty Terrorist.

Haha, they'd be OWNED.

But again if the Al-quaeda hacked the satellite,we would be doomed (well not me since i think Al-quaeda dont care about South America)

[Bjossi]

Have you seen them hack satellites before? Those things have some of the strongest security if they do networking at all. And in the future hacking in its modern form will be a thing of history when quantum computing becomes viable, the laws of physics will protect the computing process.

[BTGBullseye]

Have you seen them hack satellites before? Those things have some of the strongest security if they do networking at all. And in the future hacking in its modern form will be a thing of history when quantum computing becomes viable, the laws of physics will protect the computing process.

Trust me, there will be some idiot in the US that will figure out how to hack a quantum computing satellite and sell his services to terrorists. Hackers have been using the old outdated ComSats for over a decade...

Edited March 11, 2011 by Guest (see edit history)

[Oktobermensch]

It is quite interesting how the unrest changes (read: ramps up) the oil price, and how that in turn motivates further panic and unrest. Reminds me of a really bad day on the stock market, where panic and price change are linked so tightly that they start moving together simultaneously and any movement in one accelerates the other which in turn moves the first one faster and so on.

Given how climate change causes further problems, I think that 2015 is not a bad date for the prediction, given the reliability of the sources Ross presented.

 

Too bad that we won't have Mr. Fusion or flying cars by 2015....

[Bjossi]

Trust me, there will be some idiot in the US that will figure out how to hack a quantum computing satellite

 

Right, and I'm sure Clem Junior in the southern states will invent the faster-than-light drive. You can't hack a quantum computer, any external eavesropping will cause the data to be essentially destroyed. I'm not sure what that is based on but it may have something to do with the sensitive link between data made through quantum entanglement, which is an insanely fragile system of entangled atoms.

[BTGBullseye]

Trust me, there will be some idiot in the US that will figure out how to hack a quantum computing satellite

 

Right, and I'm sure Clem Junior in the southern states will invent the faster-than-light drive. You can't hack a quantum computer, any external eavesropping will cause the data to be essentially destroyed. I'm not sure what that is based on but it may have something to do with the sensitive link between data made through quantum entanglement, which is an insanely fragile system of entangled atoms.

You're showing you don't know what a quantum computer is.

 

A quantum computer simply uses switches that can be in 3 states instead of only 2. ("on, off, both/neither" as opposed to just "on, off")

 

No reason for any info/data fragility, since the only part that makes it a quantum computer is the processor, and it only processes the data.

[Bjossi]

I have no physics education on this level, I just do curiosity reading. There are rapid developments in this field and many different quantum computers, either my source is outdated or plain wrong if your claim (without citing any sources yourself) is correct. One would however think that data being processed by a stable system would be at great risk if anything causes the system to collapse. The same does apply to modern processors but it seems to me it is harder to maintain a stable quantum system, with current knowledge and technology anyways.

[BTGBullseye]

I have no physics education on this level, I just do curiosity reading. There are rapid developments in this field and many different quantum computers, either my source is outdated or plain wrong if your claim (without citing any sources yourself) is correct. One would however think that data being processed by a stable system would be at great risk if anything causes the system to collapse. The same does apply to modern processors but it seems to me it is harder to maintain a stable quantum system, with current knowledge and technology anyways.

The only instability with quantum processors is that they need to remain supercooled due to needing superconductors. (currently the only superconductors we have only superconduct at extreme low temps)

 

I think what you're reading is from the Wiki page about "Quantum decoherence"... There is absolutely no real data on this phenomena. (their main source was excerpted from a book that was published in '95, before anyone had actually made a quantum processor)

[beefman62]

It is disappointing how the oil companies much rather live in the moment than look into the future. Now people say that alternate energy sources are the future, that is what the oil companies are afraid of, them going out of business. Every time i think about it i want to slap the head CEO of what ever gas corp i can think of. Why can we just do both renewable resources and petroleum? I did a simple google search on all the energy sources there are and was surprised. The oil company has used old engine specs off a 80 year old carburetor they have suppressed from the public all this time to make more money. this 200 mpg carburetor would destroy oil stock, but we would not have to worry about gas now would we? but of course they are not giving this out to the public simply because... well greed. Even if someone did discover some other fuel, its doubtful anyone will ever hear about it. Hell someone might have already and was shot for it. I also saw some esoteric sources of energy. 1 Waves. i say what better use for our ocean than killing people and food is energy. It dose not say the energy it produces or how much it will cost but in the long run it will be well worth it simply because the ocean will never go away unless something just idk happens to it at one point. Another is methane power. China has a factory that uses methane power from a dairy farm that powers and helps the environment. There is also wind, damms, sun, nuclear power, all of witch are under estimated and ignored.

 

P.S. Ross the US dose have oil reserves that will cover the US for years to come. may not be 2015 but more like 2020

http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news2.13s.html

 

Heres the storys 200MPH engine http://www.newmediaexplorer.org/sepp/2003/06/07/original_blueprints_for_200_mpg_carburetor_found_in_england.htm

 

Wave energy

http://ocsenergy.anl.gov/guide/wave/index.cfm

 

china power

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5599