The Chinese pork crisis and the cornovirus.

[Naughty Hieroglyph]

Right now, the cornovirus is in the news. What concerns me, is that in the past the media would go nuts over a disease,  with none stop hype and doom with all sorts of fear mongering to increase views. Not this time, this time it strikes me as the bare minimum. The absence of the fear mongering is why i am concerned. 

But how did we get here? It's a rather interesting story, and it starts with pigs. 

 

So the Chinese eat pork, lots of pork. Correct me if i am wrong, but the kanji for meat is the kanji for pork, and all other forms of meat use the pork kanji as a base. They are very dependent on pork. It is a cultural dependence on pork. So as their economy has been growing, so too has the demand for pork. So they increased production very haphazardly. 

 

As a result, African swine flu eventually decimated their pork production. this caused the prices to skyrocket, and when demand is unmet another product has to fill in that demand. 

 

Enter the bat soup. Not just bat soup, but all sorts of other exotic meat.  Bats carry cornovirus, and until recently it did not affect people. So what appears to have happened, is thanks to people eating things they should not which in this case would be bats, cornoviurs jumped from bats to people. This is not the first time this has happened, and it won't be the last. Ebola came from bats(if i understand things correctly), and aids came from eating bush meat. 

Now, if the Peoples republic is competent, which they are not, this would usher in a new era of food safety laws. I doubt this will happen, so be prepared for their increased food demand to cause food prices to sky rocket across the world. 

[BTGBullseye]

The thing is that there's nothing wrong with eating those other meats. The meat doesn't have any illnesses inside it if cooked properly, (and they do in fact cook it properly) but the slaughter and packaging process is what is really lacking, as are the food handling policies in the kitchen. That's where the viruses make their way to kumans, from the handling of the raw without any precautions to prevent it from getting into the finished food.

[Naughty Hieroglyph]

On 1/26/2020 at 4:29 PM, BTGBullseye said:

The thing is that there's nothing wrong with eating those other meats. The meat doesn't have any illnesses inside it if cooked properly, (and they do in fact cook it properly) but the slaughter and packaging process is what is really lacking, as are the food handling policies in the kitchen. That's where the viruses make their way to kumans, from the handling of the raw without any precautions to prevent it from getting into the finished food.

That would tie into the pig epidemic, the bird flu, and other illnesses: they have a dire need for stringent food safety regulations. Upton Sinclair's the jungle seems to be relevant again, after 100 years. 

[Eshanas]

Because 100,000,000 could die globally and the world would barely feel it, and we would just enter a slight global recession, at best.

 

And so far, we probably won't even see 500 dead; and of those they all seem to be the elderly of Wuhan. A local tragedy,  yes,  but barely a disaster.

[BTGBullseye]

2 hours ago, Eshanas said:

Because 100,000,000 could die globally and the world would barely feel it, and we would just enter a slight global recession, at best.

No, that's at most. At best we could see a small reduction in pollution and waste. (and possibly even lower prices on electronics if the deaths occur in a wealthy country)

[Naughty Hieroglyph]

I am not sure how good of a source this is. while it appears to be scholarly, it has not been peer reviewed and it has the r0 value as very high. 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3525558

But if that r0 is correct, then this is a very nasty disease... 

[BTGBullseye]

About a 60% mortality rate in its current stats. While that is bad, I think it's mostly due to the poor healthcare being received by the infected.

[Naughty Hieroglyph]

It causes pneumonia, and THAT's what makes it dangerous. Bernie Mac died of pneumonia, and what shocked me was that lancet article about the kid that had no symptoms, but when they did a chest xray she had walking pneumonia. 

Pneumonia is not a joke, while it most likely won't kill healthy people, it will incapacitate them.  So we have a highly contagious disease that incapacitates people and is harsher than the flu, and takes about two weeks before symptoms start to show. 

[BTGBullseye]

23 hours ago, Naughty Hieroglyph said:

It causes pneumonia, and THAT's what makes it dangerous. Bernie Mac died of pneumonia, and what shocked me was that lancet article about the kid that had no symptoms, but when they did a chest xray she had walking pneumonia. 

Pneumonia is not a joke, while it most likely won't kill healthy people, it will incapacitate them.  So we have a highly contagious disease that incapacitates people and is harsher than the flu, and takes about two weeks before symptoms start to show. 

The official lethality rate of the disease is only 3%. While that is significantly higher than the flu, that's still way less than almost any other major disease we've dealt with.

[Naughty Hieroglyph]

the incubation period is  what concerns me. a one to to two week transmission period? followed by being ooc for a week with pneumonia? that is going to cause some disruptions. 

 

I wonder what the fallout will be? Will it spark some reform? It's an interesting thing to watch. 

[BTGBullseye]

20 hours ago, Naughty Hieroglyph said:

Will it spark some reform?

Doubtful. Most likely it'll be forgotten less than a week after it has run its course.

[kerdios]

So what actually happens after the incubation period? Since it's a virus, antibiotics don't usually work (there are some virus exceptions, but we are not talking about them (or I might be confusing with vaccines that used to be only for viruses but now there are also for bacteria)).
Is there a cure?
Is home rest and plenty of fluids enough to treat the mild cases?

I'm asking because I am hearing about a high contagion factor, but nearly no deaths, so is that because a very large amount of people are already infected but just haven't died yet?
What is going on?

[BTGBullseye]

38 minutes ago, kerdios said:

Is there a cure?

Yes. Strong antibiotics can fix this in under 48 hours.

39 minutes ago, kerdios said:

Is home rest and plenty of fluids enough to treat the mild cases?

As long as you're not immunocompromised, most definitely.

39 minutes ago, kerdios said:

I'm asking because I am hearing about a high contagion factor, but nearly no deaths, so is that because a very large amount of people are already infected but just haven't died yet?

It's basically a really contagious version of the flu. At worst it has a 3% mortality rate, and that's just because 3 out of 10 people are that weakened immunologically.

41 minutes ago, kerdios said:

What is going on?

China is refusing to provide at least basic health care, and is thereby spreading the virus significantly.

[kerdios]

59 minutes ago, BTGBullseye said:

Yes. Strong antibiotics can fix this in under 48 hours.

Are you sure the antibioitics are for the virus and not just to protect the body from bacterial infection while the immune system takes care of the virus?

[BTGBullseye]

6 hours ago, kerdios said:

Are you sure the antibioitics are for the virus and not just to protect the body from bacterial infection while the immune system takes care of the virus?

They're for HIV. They completely wipe out the virus entirely. Test positive going into the hospital, test negative coming out.

[rairii]

21 hours ago, BTGBullseye said:

Yes. Strong antibiotics can fix this in under 48 hours.

As long as you're not immunocompromised, most definitely.

It's basically a really contagious version of the flu. At worst it has a 3% mortality rate, and that's just because 3 out of 10 people are that weakened immunologically.

Antibiotics don't do anything because it's a virus. Viruses can't be cured by antibiotics or antifungals because it's not a bacterium or fungus. It's a virus. The only defense against viruses are vaccines and the immune system, and beyond that you can never cure a virus, only treat it.

21 hours ago, BTGBullseye said:

China is refusing to provide at least basic health care, and is thereby spreading the virus significantly.

This is a complete myth. Another scaremongering tactic in the long line of sinophobic propaganda that's been flooding western media in recent months, in fact. Wuhan has officially been quarantined, doctors in Wuhan are working around the clock to develop a vaccine and treat patients, and the Chinese government has ordered construction of more hospitals to house the sick.

I hate to have to defend China on this one but it's always annoying to see the blame tossed upon them when the media blows any major news story regarding them completely out of proportion.

[rairii]

14 hours ago, BTGBullseye said:

They're for HIV. They completely wipe out the virus entirely. Test positive going into the hospital, test negative coming out.

Again, wrong, there is no antibiotic that can cure a virus and there certainly is no cure for HIV. There is treatment that can make it easier to live with and more difficult to spread, but that'd be grossly misunderstanding what the drug actually does. You still have HIV even if you're living so comfortably with it that you may as well not have it.

[Naughty Hieroglyph]

My suspicion is that this has been aggravated by the horrific pollution going on in the country. Also remember that the older Chinese were malnourished from famine in their youth, hence why all the boomer teachers used to yell at you about starving kids in china if you wasted food at lunch. So far it appears that the people dying outside of china were Chinese expats living abroad, but there are not enough sources for me to verify that. 

 

So i suspect that the smog allowed easier transmission for the virus, which did happen with either sars or bird flu if i recall correctly. Combine that with chain smoking and dirty conditions and you have a powder keg waiting to go off. We had warnings: sars, swine flu, and bird flu all coming out of china over the last 20 years, yet nothing was done to prevent future outbreaks. Now we have an exceptionally dangerous one. 

 

Then there is the other craziness occurring simultaneous to the coronavirus: they have a bird flu outbreak, an African swine flu outbreak, and invasive armyworms decimating crops.  "Biblical disasters" is an appropriate thing to say in this situation.   

 

So what will the fallout be? how much of the global supply chain will be affected? what happens when the doctors start getting sick and dying? What happens if this virus can survive a few weeks in the smog? Can the virus be transmitted via the yellow sand pollution? if so then that will hit the west coast of the US and the rest of the pacific? This might be the big thing to spur environmental regulations and reforms across the globe. 

[BTGBullseye]

7 hours ago, Annie said:

Antibiotics don't do anything because it's a virus. Viruses can't be cured by antibiotics or antifungals because it's not a bacterium or fungus. It's a virus. The only defense against viruses are vaccines and the immune system, and beyond that you can never cure a virus, only treat it.

This is a complete myth. Another scaremongering tactic in the long line of sinophobic propaganda that's been flooding western media in recent months, in fact. Wuhan has officially been quarantined, doctors in Wuhan are working around the clock to develop a vaccine and treat patients, and the Chinese government has ordered construction of more hospitals to house the sick.

I hate to have to defend China on this one but it's always annoying to see the blame tossed upon them when the media blows any major news story regarding them completely out of proportion.

 

7 hours ago, Annie said:

Again, wrong, there is no antibiotic that can cure a virus and there certainly is no cure for HIV. There is treatment that can make it easier to live with and more difficult to spread, but that'd be grossly misunderstanding what the drug actually does. You still have HIV even if you're living so comfortably with it that you may as well not have it.

https://www.dailysabah.com/health/2020/02/02/thailand-cures-coronavirus-with-anti-hiv-drug-cocktail-in-48-hours

https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/anti-viral-drug-combo-cured-woman-of-coronavirus/

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-treatment-cocktail-of-flu-hiv-drugs-2020-2

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/flu-and-anti-hiv-drugs-show-efficacy-against-coronavirus-67052

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-02-20-intl-hnk/h_f9dcabd30a7a19762113ae3aae284742

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (timeline, February 2)

3 hours ago, Naughty Hieroglyph said:

My suspicion is that this has been aggravated by the horrific pollution going on in the country. Also remember that the older Chinese were malnourished from famine in their youth, hence why all the boomer teachers used to yell at you about starving kids in china if you wasted food at lunch. So far it appears that the people dying outside of china were Chinese expats living abroad, but there are not enough sources for me to verify that. 

I think that's a pretty logical assumption.

3 hours ago, Naughty Hieroglyph said:

So i suspect that the smog allowed easier transmission for the virus, which did happen with either sars or bird flu if i recall correctly. Combine that with chain smoking and dirty conditions and you have a powder keg waiting to go off. We had warnings: sars, swine flu, and bird flu all coming out of china over the last 20 years, yet nothing was done to prevent future outbreaks. Now we have an exceptionally dangerous one. 

Well, it is only really lethal to those with compromised immune systems, so again, that makes sense.

3 hours ago, Naughty Hieroglyph said:

Then there is the other craziness occurring simultaneous to the coronavirus: they have a bird flu outbreak, an African swine flu outbreak, and invasive armyworms decimating crops.  "Biblical disasters" is an appropriate thing to say in this situation.   

That's mainly due to poor food handling safety precautions. Basic health regulations that are actually enforced would go a LONG way to stopping this.

3 hours ago, Naughty Hieroglyph said:

how much of the global supply chain will be affected?

Not much at all... China has plenty of population to spare, and they don't really export food. (they do import a lot though)

3 hours ago, Naughty Hieroglyph said:

what happens when the doctors start getting sick and dying?

Won't happen. Doctors dealing with this are highly unlikely to have compromised immune systems.

3 hours ago, Naughty Hieroglyph said:

What happens if this virus can survive a few weeks in the smog? Can the virus be transmitted via the yellow sand pollution? 

Unless it mutates quite a bit, that is never going to be a problem. It only transfers with bodily contact right now.

3 hours ago, Naughty Hieroglyph said:

if so then that will hit the west coast of the US and the rest of the pacific?

There are already cases in countries other than China, but it was immediately contained. This indicates that China is mismanaging the problem, not that this is a serious disease that could change life as we know it.

3 hours ago, Naughty Hieroglyph said:

This might be the big thing to spur environmental regulations and reforms across the globe. 

No it won't. This isn't anywhere near dangerous enough for that.

[kerdios]

6 hours ago, BTGBullseye said:

 

https://www.dailysabah.com/health/2020/02/02/thailand-cures-coronavirus-with-anti-hiv-drug-cocktail-in-48-hours

https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/anti-viral-drug-combo-cured-woman-of-coronavirus/

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-treatment-cocktail-of-flu-hiv-drugs-2020-2

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/flu-and-anti-hiv-drugs-show-efficacy-against-coronavirus-67052

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-02-20-intl-hnk/h_f9dcabd30a7a19762113ae3aae284742

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (timeline, February 2)

 

The issue we have here is a misunderstanding of the term "antibiotics".
Antibiotics are usually agents that kill the foreign body.
The HIV cocktail (a.k.a ART) is a mix of inhibitors that don't affect the virus directly but rather prevent processes that naturally occur in the body that the virus piggy backs on to replicate and in that way prevent it from spreading. But the virus itself is unharmed.
So that is why ART and other antivirals are not considered antibiotics.