Occupy Hong Kong?

[ThePest179]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/27/us-hongkong-china-idUSKCN0HM01B20140927

 

Clashes in Hong Kong developing, with pro democracy protesters being beat down by PRC thugs right now.

[BTGBullseye]

Sounds like normal everyday life there to me.

[ThePest179]

Sounds like normal everyday life there to me.

 

You live in Hong Kong?

 

Was just a joke. I don't doubt how brutal the CCP can get when it comes to power.

[BTGBullseye]

I know guys that live there... The stories they tell make this sound like a normal day at the beach.

[ThePest179]

I know guys that live there... The stories they tell make this sound like a normal day at the beach.

 

We've discussed this.

 

OT: http://www.vox.com/2014/9/28/6857475/chinas-expulsion-of-western-journalists-is-backfiring-in-hong-kong

[BTGBullseye]

I know, you've said there's no way you'll believe anything unless it comes from mass media, or from somewhere you have to pay to read the paper written on the subject... Why did you bring it up?

[ThePest179]

I know, you've said there's no way you'll believe anything unless it comes from mass media, or from somewhere you have to pay to read the paper written on the subject... Why did you bring it up?

 

Making it clear for everyone else.

[Vapymid]

It's been a while since I had been to HK last time so can't say what the mood in the streets is.

 

I am concerned that the protestors turned this into a personal confrontation with the incumbent CEO. That tends to distort the issues and make negotiations very difficult if not impossible.

 

The way I see it - once it became personal, the CEO has no room to back down without losing face, which will be fatal for his career. He isl then motivated to be aggressive and uncompromising until the end.

 

The CEO then is very likely to try to resolve the things by force, once the holidays are over next week. The Chinese government will look and if they think he is winning - they will support him, if he fails - they will call him off and make him a scapegoat and a "rogue official", then send a "good cop" to negotiate. A win-win for them.

 

Regards

[ThePest179]

It's been a while since I had been to HK last time so can't say what the mood in the streets is.

 

Regards

 

From what I can tell, most of the protesters are angry about HK's declining economy, and the rigged elections are the straw that broke the camel's back.

[DoNotRemoveBeforeFlight]

From what I can tell, most of the protesters are angry about HK's declining economy, and the rigged elections are the straw that broke the camel's back.

Citation needed.

 

The HSI is holding damn well after 2008, even with speculations.

Claims of a rigged election is expected from such a political climate. Look at Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan...

 

The protests claim to be for "Universal Suffrage" (hell if I know what they're talking about), bla bla bla.

Mass media love to show what those people are "fighting" for, but rarely (or none) cover how businesses are affected. Rents are expensive, I tell ya. Police brutality against unarmed civilians? Then what are you going to have them do instead? Nicely walk up to them and ask them to return home in a sweet manner? Dude, the police warned them. Crowd control by smoke is inevitable, but at least it doesn't break your bones.

 

Worse, this is civil disobedience (obviously illegal), and they would challenge the police. Yet, when angry citizens walk up to tell the protestors off (for disruption of business, life etc), guess what? The protestors want the police to pull them away (generalization here). Arresting the protestors is legal, and again, they'd been warned. Totally not political.

 

Having observed Hong Kong for more than a decade, for the protests to reach this level is unreasonable and childish. Heck, academics everywhere agree that HK has so much freedom that the protestors claim not to have. Pick up a random HK newspaper and you can tell there's plenty of freedom of press & speech. Even better, rallies can be held on streets (except this case) any day (subject to permit and designated area of course)

 

"The future of HK" I understand this legitimate concern, but Beijing like how HK is run right now, they do not want to make it worse. You can think HK as a testing ground for Chinese democracy and capitalism. No damn way Tiananmen Incident is going to repeat there. Life in HK today is much better without the Brits, even better without anarchy or selfish (and fake!) politicians.

 

The trouble is, HK politics is too free. I don't understand how some rouge legislators got into office. They disrupt speeches and meetings, threw trash around like kids. One of them is leading the charge in this protest.

 

HK protests leave as fast as they come. HKers will eventually move on as they lose the will.

 

Edit: Don't forget that bringing down the government has huge consequences. Keep in mind that emergency services don't run by themselves, neither do utilities. Personally, I'd prefer stability over liberty. What the hell are social contracts for then?

To comment on politics is no easy matter. The above is the simplest one I can give, a condensed summary of my opinions. Sit back, ponder over the questions, read more, check out the history, profiles of the players etc. Shit's a lot more complicated than you think.

Mass media is sensationalist.

[ThePest179]

From what I can tell, most of the protesters are angry about HK's declining economy, and the rigged elections are the straw that broke the camel's back.

Citation needed.

 

You proved it yourself. HK is the freest part of China (I wouldn't count on it spreading democracy to the mainland though), so what else except economics (and anti communist and anti mainland feelings) could this be about?

[BTGBullseye]

Corruption?

[ThePest179]

Corruption?

 

Yes, that too.

[DoNotRemoveBeforeFlight]

Right. HK's economy decline (it there's one) is often short term. That's not a valid point and is never in the spotlight in the protest.

 

Corruption is in part with the legislators.

The trouble is, HK politics is too free. I don't understand how some rouge legislators got into office. They disrupt speeches and meetings, threw trash around like kids. One of them is leading the charge in this protest.

Triads still exist, and it's no surprise there a few legislators may have connections with them.

 

But fighting corruption in HK is a double-edged sword. On one side you are doing justice, but on the other side, some people will cry out that the government is being too hard (and un-democratic, following Beijing's order etc.). I've been there many times, I've mentors there, and I've used HK in my case studies. There is no way to satisfy these kind of people.

 

That's the HK political culture.

[BTGBullseye]

That's what I was trying to get across when I said that this sounded perfectly normal from all the stories I've heard.

[ThePest179]

Right. HK's economy decline (it there's one) is often short term. That's not a valid point and is never in the spotlight in the protest.

 

 

That's the total percentage of GDP HK had in the Chinese economy. HK has 3.3% unemployment, compared to Macau, which has 1.7%. There has also been remarkably poor investment in public services and infrastructure, too.

[DoNotRemoveBeforeFlight]

That's what I was trying to get across when I said that this sounded perfectly normal from all the stories I've heard.

Yep.

 

Here's my (over-simplified) analysis of ThePest179's data:

 

I'm sure you know why the proportion of HK's GDP in mainland PRC is falling, as we see in the chart.

China is growing faster! It has been undergoing an industrial revolution, thus overtaking Japan as 2nd largest economy.

And the chart above did not specify if it's nominal or adjusted for inflation.

Plus, HK is a mature economy. High economic growth is unlikely.

PRC's growth outpaces HK, thus the chart.

Again, the chart is the proportion of HK's GDP as part of the entire China.

 

You are right about unemployment. But I can safely say that the fault's on both parties.

Government: Too much emphasis on tertiary education - leads to surplus of degree holders for white collar jobs.

Youths: Same expectations.

The result is shortages in job sectors that many refuse to work in. Construction, sanitary, or even service and retail.

Google "Structural Unemployment".

 

Macau's a no-brainer. Over there, it's a different culture. I know it sounds funny, but I've been there and it feels like almost a totally different world from HK.

 

HK government is trying to change for the better anyway.

http://www.chinadailyasia.com/business/2014-02/14/content_15118302.html

[ThePest179]

I'm sure you know why the proportion of HK's GDP in mainland PRC is falling, as we see in the chart.

China is growing faster! It has been undergoing an industrial revolution, thus overtaking Japan as 2nd largest economy.

 

And HK wants desperately to be the economic center again. They don't want to get left behind.

[DoNotRemoveBeforeFlight]

China & HK differ because of different economic conditions and characteristics. HK is already at its capacity unless it's able to expand its service sector and tourism. But China offers cheap labor, land, and a huge domestic market. The Chinese economy is expanding fast because of the multiplier effect.

Example: http://geographyfieldwork.com/multiplier.gif

 

If HK is done expanding the service sector in 2025 (a big if), we should see it climbing again. You can't grow an economy overnight.

 

This should be helpful in addressing the protest:

http://time.com/3471366/hong-kong-umbrella-revolution-occupy-central-democracy-explainer-6-questions/

"Well-educated" is over-generalized. I bet the protestors are after short-term gain rather than their long-term "future".

Stability is also essential for the economy, too. Check out the losses during the protest.